Ambrose edges Villeneuve for Nationwide pole at Montreal
Autoracing Betting Lines
08/28/2010 - Montreal, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcos Ambrose outran Canadian Jacques Villeneuve in the closing minutes of qualifying to take the pole for Sunday's NAPA Auto Parts 200 Nationwide Series race at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
Ambrose, who won the most recent road course race in the series three weeks ago at Watkins Glen, NY, set a new track qualifying record at the 2.710-mile, 14-turn course in Montreal with a lap of 1 minute, 40.458 seconds (97.079 m.p.h.) for his second pole of the season and the fourth of his Nationwide career.
"I just made the entire population of Canada really mad with one little Australian," Ambrose jokingly said. "It would have been a great story if Jacques would have been on the pole, but it's a great racetrack, and Jacques is a fierce competitor. I've been a hero of his, watching him do all of his [Formula One] and IndyCar stuff, so to be matched up with him on the front row tomorrow is really going to be exciting for us."
Ambrose has led the most laps in the first three races at Montreal, but victory has eluded him here.
Villeneuve and Ambrose ran in the eighth and final group in qualifying. Both drivers swapped the provisional pole position before Ambrose topped Villeneuve on his final lap.
"I just knew the second lap was not quick enough, and I needed to put a good one in," Villeneuve said. "I pushed a little too hard in the hairpin, and then lost a few tenths [of a second] there. It was close, but it was fun. This track is where you can lose a lot of time with the tiniest mistake."
The Montreal track is named after Villeneuve's late father.
Joey Logano qualified third, followed by Carl Edwards and Boris Said.
Jason Leffler, Paul Menard, Brad Keselowski, the current points leader, Max Papis and Brad Coleman completed the top-10.
Keselowski holds a 313-point lead over Edwards.
Stanton Barrett, Kevin O'Connell and Pierre Bourque failed to qualify.
The 200-mile race at Montreal is scheduled to start shortly after 2:30 p.m. (et).
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.